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New Facility Predictive Model

The New Facility Predictive Model predicts when new municipal facilities are required based on analytics and existing service level choices.

This decision-making tool looks at existing community and public services and considers what future infrastructure is needed to support them in the years to come. The model allows the City to holistically plan and prioritize funding for new facilities for St. Albert for the long-term.

Municipal facilities include but are not limited to: community facilities (field houses, performing arts theatres, city wide soccer centres), fire stations, transit garages, transit park and ride stations, public works facilities and police detachments. This also includes services provided on City land/infrastructure by not for profit or arm’s-length organizations. 

What Data Does the Model Use?

The data used to predict future need is based upon the ‘typical comparator cities’ listed below. Research on smaller and larger communities is also collected and this information is used to reflect differences in the provision of infrastructure depending on the size of the community.

  • Typical Comparator Cities – Data is gathered from cities that the City of St. Albert typically uses as comparators and/or benchmarks, including Airdrie, Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer and Strathcona County. Please note that with some specialized services, different comparators are selected. Examples are fitness centres, fire services, transit and RCMP.
  • Small Alberta Comparator Communities – Information is collected from smaller Alberta communities including Camrose, Cochrane, Fort Saskatchewan, Leduc, Okotoks and Spruce Grove.  
  • Large Canadian Comparator Cities – Data is gathered from large Canadian cities including Edmonton, Kelowna (BC), Newmarket (Ontario) and Oakville (Ontario).
  • St. Albert Growth Projections (March 2014) 
  • Infrastructure categories – 33 in total, examples: arenas, indoor swimming pools, recycling and eco stations etc.
  • Stakeholder Input – The Model will use input from the public consultation phase (operational inputs, views and impressions) to help inform decisions on future new facilities.
  • Service Level Choices – Service level choices will be applied to the Model once all other data is determined.  

How the Model Works

The Model:

  • Establishes the current level of service (baseline) for the existing facility.
  • Develops external comparative analytics to determine how the infrastructure compares to other comparator cities.
  • Applies St. Albert growth projections to the particular infrastructure category to predict when a new facility is needed.
  • Incorporates infrastructure categories and existing service level choices to determine when new, additional facilities are required.  

The Model also builds in a three-year planning cycle:

  • Year 1 - Feasibility study and Functional plan confirms type, scope and size of planned infrastructure;
  • Year 2 - Schematic and design development phase further refines capital costs;
  • Year 3 - Construction is the final stage.

Findings

From June to September 2015, the City undertook a comprehensive public consultation process with stakeholders to ensure the Model's data was correct, complete and all possible data inputs such as utilization, capacity, funding and other industry specific metrics were considered. The City talked with operator/service providers, major users/stakeholders, casual users as well as residents in general. 

Here are the complete findings: 

On October 13, 2015, the City presented the information to the Standing Committee of the Whole. They received the report as information. 

Resources

New Facility Priority Assessment Model Information Sheet 

Comparator Cities Benchmark Research 


 

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Last edited: July 17, 2017

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